Juice and Vig staring down a very big weekend

GM. This is Everyday Juice, the sports betting newsletter that ate Penguins for dinner and is now staring at a World Series buffet with a small plate.

๐Ÿ“‹ The Menu

๐ŸŠ The Squeeze Play: A desperate home team with a cheaper price than it opened at. We like a discount.

๐Ÿฅค The Fresh Pour: Brewers vs. Rays in the World Series. Two franchises, zero titles, one of them fixes that.

๐Ÿค” Off the Menu: Last issue's leans went 3-for-3. Juice wants a raise and a parking spot.

โšก Quick Sips: A 6'9" goalie, a guy who promised to eat dog poop, and a Bears doink called in advance.

๐Ÿ‹ The Sour Squeeze: Thursday night had a 58-yarder, a late field goal and a lot of people yelling at their phones.

๐Ÿค– Brain Juice: DraftKings has the Brewers โˆ’198 and the Rays +162 for Game 1. Turn both into implied odds and add them up. Why is it more than 100%? Juice did the math with a crayon. Answer in The Last Drop.

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๐Ÿงพ The Refill

The Refill, presented by Pikkit.

๐ŸŠ Refill: โœ… ยท Penguins ML (โˆ’114), BetRivers, 1 orange ยท +0.88u

Pittsburgh shut out a Florida team on its second night in a row 4โ€“0, so "fade the legs" went from theory to a very rude scoreboard.

Record: 17โ€“6 ยท +9.32u

Since launch, following every tracked Squeeze Play at $100 per unit would have produced about $932 in profit.

Track your bets with Pikkit, code JUICE. Sponsored by Pikkit. Affiliate link. 21+.

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The Squeeze Play

๐ŸŠ Squeeze Play: Avalanche ML

Desperate at home, and cheaper than the open.

Game: Lightning at Avalanche
Sport/Type: NHL / Moneyline
Book: DraftKings
Odds: โˆ’125
Play: Avalanche ML ยท 1 ๐ŸŠ

Why: Colorado comes home on a two-game skid after one-goal losses to Philadelphia (3โ€“2) and New Jersey (4โ€“3). Tampa arrives off wins over Vancouver (4โ€“2) and Vegas (6โ€“2), and that recent form is what's propping up the Lightning price. Colorado opened โˆ’135 and has drifted to โˆ’125, so the market has leaned Tampa, and we're getting a desperate home team cheaper than the open.

๐Ÿงƒ Pulp: The money is going to Tampa, not us, and the Lightning have won two straight for a reason.

Walk-away: Pass if it's worse than โˆ’128.

DraftKings is a sportsbook; available where legal. 1 ๐ŸŠ = 1% of your bankroll.

๐Ÿงƒ Know someone who'd bet this one? Send them the Juice โ†’

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The Fresh Pour

Somebody finally gets a ring. Brewers or Rays?

What happened: The World Series opens Friday in Milwaukee. The Brewers (103โ€“59, the best record in baseball) swept the Dodgers to get here. The Rays (98โ€“64) took out Cleveland in six. Milwaukee hasn't been to the Series since 1982, when it lost to the Cardinals in seven. Tampa Bay lost in 2008 and 2020. Neither franchise has ever won it (MLB.com, ESPN).

The arms: Jacob Misiorowski (MLB-best 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 252 strikeouts) for Milwaukee vs. Nick Martinez (15โ€“6, 3.10) for Tampa Bay.

The price: Brewers โˆ’198 and Rays +162 at DraftKings, โˆ’196/+164 at FanDuel. Milwaukee opened around โˆ’155 on Monday, so the books have spent the week stacking chips on the Brewers' side.

Why it matters: At โˆ’198 you're paying for a 66.4% favorite (our math: 198 รท 298). That's a steep entry fee for one baseball game, where a bloop and a bad hop can turn an ace into a guy who "battled."

Also on the plate: The Sixers came back from 29 down in their home opener, the largest comeback in franchise play-by-play history (@NBA). App State knocked off James Madison in overtime and the field got rushed (@barstoolsports).

The takeaway: The Brewers are the better team on paper, and the price knows it. Game 1 isn't a Squeeze for us at โˆ’198. We'd rather watch than pay for that much chalk.

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Off the Menu

Last issue's leans, graded (ESPN):

โœ… Kings ML (+100, DraftKings): Kings 3, Islanders 2 in OT. Clarke ended it, and Panarin's two goals mean somebody on Long Island is still mad.

โœ… Blues ML (+106, FanDuel): Blues 6, Golden Knights 2. Barron put up four points and Vegas left early for the buffet.

โœ… Thunder โˆ’7.5 (โˆ’115, DraftKings): Thunder 96, Nuggets 84. Covered by 4.5. Holmgren grabbed 17 boards and blocked four shots, and Denver's offense never found the light switch.

Three for three. Juice is now demanding a corner office and a nameplate. Vig says leans still don't get promoted, no matter how hot the streak. Leans don't count toward the Squeeze record and carry no units.

Tonight's leans: The almost-Squeeze Plays. We liked them, just not enough.

One run of cushion, priced like it.

Game: Rays at Brewers (World Series Game 1)
Sport/Type: MLB / Total (alt)
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: โˆ’160
Lean: Over 5.5

Why: Every book in the Action Network feed has the main game total at 6.5, with DraftKings pricing Over 6.5 at โˆ’112 and FanDuel at โˆ’105. The opener was also 6.5 with the Over at โˆ’105, so the market has held its number. Over 5.5 sits a full run below that consensus total, which is why the alt price is steeper.

๐Ÿงƒ Pulp: โˆ’160 means this needs to cash about 62% of the time, and Misiorowski led MLB in ERA.

Odds as of 1:03 AM ET. Not official plays. Leans are not part of the Squeeze record.

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โšก Quick Sips

6'9" (Nice). Cooper Black made his NHL debut as the tallest goalie in league history. Shooters are now aiming for the 4 inches he can't reach. (via @spittinchiclets)

Promises were made. A JMU fan said he'd eat dog poop if they lost. They lost in OT, and he deleted his account. The house always wins, the dog always wins. (via @br_betting)

Big Cat, sports prophet. "I don't feel good about this field goal." Then it doinked. Somebody give this man a crystal ball and a Bears helmet. (via @barstoolsports)

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๐Ÿ‹ The Sour Squeeze

Under 50.5, Patriots at Bears. Late in the fourth it was 27โ€“21, 48 points, and Under bettors were picking out the steak for their victory dinner.

Then Cairo Santos hit a 58-yard field goal, a new career long, with 1:34 left. 51 points. Over by half a point. New England added a 47-yarder with 37 seconds left just to rub it in: Bears 30, Patriots 24, 54 total.

The Over crowd called it "never a doubt." It was nothing but doubt. Under bettors, Juice is sending a fruit basket. It's mostly lemons.

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๐Ÿ˜‚ Juicy Meme
The three-game special

Juice booked a spa day for the weekend. The spa is three games and a hot tub of regret.

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๐Ÿ’ง The Last Drop

๐Ÿค– Brain Juice answer: 66.4% + 38.2% = 104.6% (our math: 198 รท 298 for the Brewers, 100 รท 262 for the Rays).

That extra 4.6% is the hold, the book's cut, baked right into the prices. Vig is named after it, and he wants royalties.

๐Ÿงƒ Got Juice? Know someone who bets? Share your link โ†’

Squeeze responsibly. ๐ŸŠ โ€” Juice & Vig

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