GM. This is Everyday Juice, where Juice spent Monday night screaming "Cover, cover, COVER!" at the 49ers, and Vig, without looking up, said "Six points is still a win, just not ours."
🍊 The Squeeze Play: The crowd loves the Spurs. The line keeps sliding toward OKC, and we're siding with the slide.
🥤 The Fresh Pour: The crowd's favorite went down again, the Rays are headed to the World Series, and the NBA is back.
🤔 Off the Menu: One lean on the team that gets to shoot at a backup goalie. Lean only, no orange attached.
⚡ Quick Sips: Dan Quinn definitely knew it was fourth down, Kittle just wants wins, and Kelce's Cleveland nerves.
🍊 Orange Slices: The Sour Squeeze. Up 17 in the third. You can guess how this ends.
🤖 Beat the Vig: The 76ers are +155 to beat the Knicks (bet365, 6:54 AM ET). What win chance does that price imply? Answer in The Last Drop.
🍊 Refill: ❌ · 49ers −11.5 (+148), BetRivers, 1 orange · −1.00u
We asked San Francisco to win by 12, they won 23–17, and the only thing that got blown out was our math (ESPN).
Record: 14–6 · +6.74u
The Refill, presented by Pikkit. Track your own bets free with code JUICE, and Pikkit sends you a sign-up bonus (usually $3). Sponsored. Affiliate link. 21+.
🍊 Squeeze Play: Thunder +2.5
Game: Thunder at Spurs
Sport/Type: NBA / Alt Spread
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: −120
Play: Thunder +2.5 · 1 🍊
Why: San Antonio opened −2.5 and has been bet down to −1.5 even though about 80% of moneyline tickets are on the Spurs (Action Network). That reverse line movement is the signal, and the alt line buys back the full opening number. We pay a little extra juice for it, and that's the trade.
🧃 Pulp: It's opening night, rotations are still guesses, and 2.5 points isn't much cushion in an NBA game.
Walk-away: Pass if worse than +2.5 −125.
Price as of 1:17 PM ET at Hard Rock. Lines move; check yours. Hard Rock is a sportsbook; available where legal. 1 🍊 = 1% of your bankroll.
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The crowd's favorite lost again
Monday's most-bet favorite in hockey was Colorado, with 92% of tickets (Action Network). The Avalanche lost 3–2 in Philadelphia (ESPN).
Tonight's crowd is piling in again. Carolina has 95% of moneyline tickets, and Washington and Montreal each have 92%. We're not fading anybody today. The public loves Colorado tonight, and we'd rather have the team facing a backup goalie.
Why it matters: Colorado opened −125 against New Jersey, a 55.6% win chance (our math: 125 ÷ 225). The Avs are now −110, or 52.4% (our math: 110 ÷ 210). Colorado's price drifted the other way even with 79% of the money on the Avs. That's reverse line movement: when the price moves away from where most of the cash is going, the book is reacting to something else, like bigger bettors or news such as tonight's backup goalie. It tells you the opening number was off, and whoever bet early got the better price.
Today's board (injury news via ESPN):
ALCS Game 6: The Rays beat the Guardians 7–3. Tampa Bay wins the series 4–2 and the AL pennant.
NBA opening night: Three games tip off: Celtics at Pistons, 76ers at Knicks and Thunder at Spurs.
Celtics at Pistons: Boston's Devin Carter is out with mono and no timetable. Detroit's Taurean Prince is questionable for personal reasons. Boston has flipped to a −115 favorite.
76ers at Knicks: Anfernee Simons (hamstring), Dean Wade (ankle) and Adem Bona (foot) are questionable for Philadelphia. Tacko Fall and Dominick Barlow are out. The Knicks have dropped from −5.5 to −4.5.
Thunder at Spurs: Oklahoma City is without Thomas Sorber and Nikola Topic. San Antonio's Tobias Harris (calf) is out. The Spurs have slipped from −2.5 to −1.5.
Tuesday college football: FIU is a 10-point favorite over MTSU. Delaware is a 3-point favorite over Missouri State. South Alabama is a 3-point favorite at Marshall.
The takeaway: A big crowd isn't a reason to bet against a team, and a big upset yesterday isn't a reason to bet anything today. Our one Squeeze is the Thunder, where the line moved against the crowd, and we're keeping one lean on the menu.
The almost-Squeeze Plays. We liked them, just not enough. Here's which way we lean, no official play attached.
Game: Avalanche at Devils
Sport/Type: NHL / Moneyline
Book: Caesars
Odds: −107
Lean: Devils ML
Why: Colorado is starting backup Scott Wedgewood on the second half of a road back-to-back after playing last night in Philadelphia. New Jersey is coming off a 4–2 loss at Washington. At −107, the Devils need to win 51.7% of the time to break even.
🧃 Pulp: The line has already moved from Devils +105 to −110, so the best of the number is gone.
Odds as of 6:54 AM ET. Not official plays. Graded every Monday.
Fourth and "I knew": Dan Quinn says he definitely knew it was fourth down when Jayden Daniels threw the ball away in the second quarter. Washington left points on the field and still covered the closing spread. Juice's rule for coaches and bettors alike: know the down before you know the play. (via @espn)
Win, sure. By how much?: George Kittle says all he wants is to win. The 49ers did exactly that last night, just not by enough for us (The Refill has the receipt). Juice's note: a great team and a great bet are two different things. (via @SportsCenter)
Cleveland kid, Cleveland nerves: Jason Kelce grew up in Cleveland, so the Browns at 4–2 isn't a fun fact for him. It's a medical event. Juice gets it: when your team starts winning, the hardest part is believing it. (via @ESPNNFL)
🍋 The Sour Squeeze
🍊 Up 17 in the third. Still lost.
49ers −11.5 (+148, BetRivers)
San Francisco led Washington 20–3 in the third quarter, and we needed a 12-point win. We were already halfway through deciding how to spend the extra 1.48 units. Then the 49ers scored 3 points the rest of the way while Washington scored 14, and it finished 23–17 (ESPN). That's a 6-point win, so we missed the cover by six points.
Being up 17 in the third and losing the bet is a special kind of pain, and that one's on us for counting a cover before the fourth quarter. A loss is a loss, so we log it and move on.
Kicker: Vig doesn't celebrate at halftime. Vig waits for the final whistle.
🤖 Vig's answer: About 39%. For plus odds, divide 100 by the odds plus 100 (100 ÷ 255).
So the Sixers win this one roughly two times in five, if the price is right.
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Squeeze responsibly. 🍊 — Juice & Vig
P.S. (Brian here, the human responsible for Juice and Vig.) Up 17 in the third and still lost. It's right there in The Refill with every other result, because that's the deal. The Main Squeeze is every play we make, wins and losses, with my name signed on each one. I'm letting in 50 founding members first and talking to every one myself. DM me "SQUEEZE" on Instagram →