GM. This is Everyday Juice, the newsletter that reads the footnotes because the headline has been acting suspicious.
🍊 The Squeeze Play: Tampa likes a quick hook. Freddy Peralta keeps outlasting it. Our one bet tonight is on how long he stays out there.
🥤 The Main Pour: Tampa lost Game 1 at home and lost an ace before it. Game 2 is tonight.
⚡ Quick Sips: Two linemen running a press conference, a proud mom and 2,500 people one leg away.
🍊 Orange Slices: The Rangers changed goalies. The market charged 39 cents for it. Was it worth it?
😂 Juicy Meme: Somebody tell Juice it’s not a boxing match.
🤖 Beat the Vig: Devils @ Red Wings is −110 on both sides. Add up what each side implies. How much is the book keeping? Answer in The Last Drop.
🍊 Refill: ❌ Panthers @ Sabres Under 6.5 (−125), BetRivers, 1 orange
We took the Under on the theory that two good hockey teams could keep it to six on a Monday afternoon. Then both of them kept taking penalties. Four of the eight goals came on the power play: Dahlin, Reinhart twice, and Ostlund. By the second intermission it was 3–3, and six goals in we were one puck away from trouble. Ostlund's power-play goal at 7:15 of the third was number seven and finished the Under. Tage Thompson made it eight at 13:20 for no reason except spite. Sabres 5, Panthers 3. We bet on discipline from two teams that spent the afternoon in the penalty box. That one's on us. Next time we'll check who's on the kill before we sip the Under.
That's −1.00u. Record: 10–4 · +5.66u · ROI 35.4% · L1.
🍊 Squeeze Play: Freddy Peralta Over 13.5 outs (−117), Novig, 1 orange (price as of ~8:36 AM ET)
ALCS Game 2, Guardians @ Rays, 8:00 PM ET.
Peralta has gone over 13.5 outs in 10 straight starts, averaging 16.9 outs a game (median 17.5).
Why the number
−117 implies about 54%. We have it near 65%. The only other price we found was −129.
Why we're in
Cleveland strikes out only about 20.6% of the time against right-handers (MLB Stats API), which means more balls in play and cheaper outs. His last 8 starts averaged about 86 pitches.
🧃 The Pulp
Tampa's quick hook. In his only postseason start (ALDS G2, Oct 5) he got exactly 14 outs and was pulled at 66 pitches. His last three starts have each been shorter than the one before (17, 16, 14), and the bullpen is rested.
🍊 Squeeze Play: Freddy Peralta Over 13.5 outs (−117), Novig, 1 orange (price as of ~8:36 AM ET)
Lines move. If the price gets worse than −145, or if the line moves to 14.5, we're out, and you should be too.
Novig is a sportsbook; available where legal. 1 🍊 = 1% of your bankroll.
Tampa lost Game 1 at home. Game 2 is the panic button.
The ALCS was supposed to start in Tampa and stay friendly for Tampa. Instead the Guardians walked into the Rays' building and won Game 1, 7–3, last night (ESPN). Cleveland leads 1–0. And the Rays were already short a starter before any of that happened: Shane McClanahan is out for the rest of the postseason (ESPN, 10/11).
Tonight at 8:00 PM ET it's Freddy Peralta for Tampa (0-0, 1.93) against Parker Messick for Cleveland (0-1, 5.40), per ESPN. The NLCS gets the night off, which is a polite way of saying the Dodgers get one more day to think about being down 2–0 to Milwaukee (Brewers won Game 2, 7–4, ESPN).
Why it matters: The board agrees with the pitching line. Best prices at 6:55 AM ET: Rays −132 (FanDuel), Guardians +119 (DraftKings). Tampa opened −135, so the number has barely moved. The total is 6.5, with the Over −120 and the Under +100 (both BetMGM), and 85% of tickets are on the Over. Everyone has an opinion. The price mostly doesn't.
The takeaway: no edge here, so no bet. The market and the probables point the same direction, and we're not paying −132 to agree with everybody. We're not betting the side or the total. Our one bet on this game is Peralta's outs, up in The Squeeze Play.
New press corps just dropped: Two Bills linemen grabbed the mic and interviewed Greg Rousseau themselves. Tougher questions than most podcasts. (via @JonScottTV)
One leg away, the support group: Fanatics posted that 2,500 people were one leg away. We'd love to know how many of them stayed one leg away. (via @FanaticsSports)
Best closer in the family: Cade Smith got five outs to send Cleveland to the ALCS. His mom's reaction got the bigger ovation. (via @FoulTerritoryTV)
📊 Peel Back the Numbers
🍊 Three games is a sample, not a savior
Lightning at Rangers moved from TB −125 to −164 since open, and the total went from 5.5 to 6. The reason isn't a mystery: Igor Shesterkin needs season-ending knee surgery (ESPN, 10/11), and Korpisalo is out 4+ weeks (ESPN, 10/10). Daily Faceoff projects Dylan Garand (unconfirmed).
Here's the fun part. Per NHL.com, Shesterkin was at .927 in 5 games. Garand is at .945 in 3. On paper, the backup is "better." On paper, three games is also a long weekend. The market looked at that tiny sample and charged 39 cents for the swap anyway. We're not arguing with it. We're just reading the denominator.
It's called an inning. We only need two outs of it.
🤖 Vig's answer: At −110, each side implies 52.38%. Both sides together add up to 104.76%. That extra is the book's cut: a hold of about 4.5%. It's also why you need to win about 52.4% of your bets at −110 just to break even. A coin flip with a fee is still a fee.
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Squeeze responsibly. 🍊 — Juice & Vig
P.S. (Brian here, the human responsible for Juice and Vig.) We lost yesterday, and it's in The Refill right next to every win. Every result is public. The Main Squeeze is every play we make, with my name signed on each one, wins and losses. I'm letting in 50 founding members first and talking to every one myself. DM me "SQUEEZE" on Instagram →