🍊 Down 0–2 and still −180

GM. This is Everyday Juice, the newsletter that checks the denominator before the percentage puts on a crown.

🍊 The Squeeze Play: No play today. The number has to earn the orange.

🥤 The Main Pour: The Dodgers are losing the series and still favored tonight. The books know something, or they're just being polite.

🍹 Off the Menu: Two leans, and one of them is the 103-win team everybody's treating like the underdog.

⚡ Quick Sips: A coach who wants boats on fire, a 1968 coach with a cigarette and the worst QB throws of the week.

🍊 Orange Slices: Is 0–2 a death sentence? History has a number, and it's not zero.

😂 Juicy Meme: Vig's bedside manner needs work.

🤖 Beat the Vig: The Dodgers are about −180 tonight. What win probability is that price implying? Answer in The Last Drop.

🍊 Refill: ✅ Freddy Peralta Over 13.5 outs (−117), Novig, 1 orange

We needed 14 outs from Freddy Peralta in an ALCS game and barely broke a sweat. Through five scoreless innings he allowed 4 hits and 2 walks, struck out 5, and threw 85 pitches. Out No. 13 was Brayan Rocchio’s foul flyout to left. Out No. 14 was Steven Kwan lining out to Junior Caminero in the fifth, and that cashed the orange. He got one more for good measure when Jo Adell lined out to center to end the inning, with the Rays up 3–0. The only real risk was an early hook, and Tampa let him cook. We needed 14, he gave us 15, and we’re claiming the extra one as interest.

That’s +0.85u. Record: 11–4 · +6.52u · ROI 38.4% · W1.

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Here's a sentence that shouldn't make sense: the team losing the NLCS is the big favorite tonight. Milwaukee leads 2–0 after winning Game 2, 7–4, and the series moves to Dodger Stadium for Game 3 on Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET on FOX. As of 6:55 AM ET, the best prices are Dodgers −174 (bet365) and Brewers +150 (FanDuel), with the consensus around −180. The total is 7.5: Over −104 (FanDuel), Under −114 (DraftKings).

That −180 says LA wins this one about 64% of the time, before you strip out the book's cut. So what is the market buying?

Mostly the starting pitcher. Blake Snell has a 2.19 ERA in five starts at Dodger Stadium this year, postseason included (MLB.com). Robert Gasser goes for Milwaukee, and he allowed seven runs in 10.2 innings against the Dodgers this season. The Brewers lost both of those games (SI). Two lefties, one with a much better track record against this lineup.

Now the part the price doesn't love. Milwaukee's bullpen has a 0.31 ERA across 28 2/3 postseason innings (MLB.com). The Dodgers had to use seven of their nine relievers in Game 2 after a short Yamamoto start, so Tuesday's off day came at a good time for them. And Shohei Ohtani starts, but he's dropped to fourth in the order while he struggles (MLB.com). The Brewers won 103 games. The Dodgers won 100 (SportsLine). This is not a mismatch that happens to be 2–0.

Why it matters: A price is not a vibe check. −180 means you're paying $180 to win $100 on the team that's lost two straight to this opponent. If Snell gives LA six good innings, it's fair. If he gets the hook in the fifth and the game turns into a bullpen fight, the Brewers' pen has been the best thing in October.

The takeaway: the market has a real reason to like LA here, and that's exactly why we don't see a bargain at −180. We're watching this one unless something better shows up in the Squeeze. Meanwhile in the ALCS, Tampa beat Cleveland 3–1 on Tuesday (ESPN), so that series is tied 1–1. Wednesday is an ALCS off day.

The almost-Squeeze Plays. These are leans, not plays: nothing official attached.

Brewers at Dodgers · NLCS Game 3 · 8:00 PM ET, FOX
Lean: Brewers ML +150 (FanDuel)
The flip side of the Main Pour. If −180 isn't a bargain on LA, a 103-win team with the hottest pen in October at +150 is at least interesting.
🧃 Pulp: Snell is pitching at home, and LA's bullpen got Tuesday off to rest.

Canadiens at Capitals · 7:30 PM ET
Lean: Canadiens ML +115 (Caesars)
Montreal has 20% of the tickets but 58% of the money, and Jakub Dobes is confirmed in net (Daily Faceoff).
🧃 Pulp: Mike Matheson is out (ESPN), and the price has barely moved (WSH −132 → −130), so the market isn't buying it either. Washington's goalie isn't confirmed.

Odds as of 6:55 AM ET. Leans, not official plays. Graded every Monday.

Burn the boats, apparently: UCLA's Bob Chesney gave a pregame speech before the Oregon upset that's now over a million views. We can't print most of it. We can say it worked. (via @On3)

Mic'd up, 1968 edition: Falcons coach Norm Van Brocklin, wired for sound by NFL Films 58 years ago this week. A cigarette and opinions. Modern coaches could never. (via @KevG163)

Meatball sub of the week: Someone compiled the week's worst quarterback throws, and it's going viral. Every one of these hurt a parlay somewhere. (via @MLFootball)

🤯 Pulp Fiction

The myth: Lose the first two games of a best-of-seven and you might as well book tee times.

FICTION.

THE JUICE: Per MLB.com, teams that won the first two games of a best-of-seven have gone on to win 79 of 95 times. That means 16 teams came back, most recently Toronto over Seattle in last year's ALCS. And 12 of those 16 did it without home-field advantage, which makes sense: they were heading home for three straight. That's the Dodgers' exact spot tonight. Long odds, not no odds. A 1-in-6 shot still shows up about once every six tries.